The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has projected that Nigeria could gain as much as 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil from the 2024 oil licensing round over the next decade.
The Executive Commissioner for Exploration and Acreage Management (E&M), Mr. Bashir Indabawa, made the disclosure in a special edition of the commission’s magazine published to commemorate its fourth anniversary.
Indabawa noted that over the past four years, the E&M department had achieved key milestones in assessing the hydrocarbon potential of Nigeria’s sedimentary basins and strengthening the regulatory framework for implementing the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
He explained that the NUPRC had expanded geoscience data coverage by acquiring, processing, and reprocessing extensive 2D and 3D seismic data across onshore and offshore basins in collaboration with local and international geophysical companies. This, he said, was part of efforts to de-risk exploration and attract new investments.
According to him, the 2024 licensing round, launched to revitalise Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, initially offered 19 oil blocks—12 new and seven carried over from the 2022/23 mini-bid round. Following additional data reviews, 17 more deep offshore blocks were added, while five under litigation were withdrawn, leaving between 24 and 31 blocks available.
Indabawa stated that through implementation of the PIA’s Drill or Drop provisions, the commission identified about 400 inactive or underperforming fields. Four companies from the 2020 Marginal Field Licensing Round, he said, had applied for conversion to Petroleum Mining Licences (PML), contributing roughly 80 million barrels of additional reserves.
“In total, we expect the recently concluded 2024 licensing rounds to add between 500 million and 1.5 billion barrels of oil within the next five to ten years,” Indabawa said.
He added that exploration activity had picked up since 2023 due to enforcement of work obligations, fast-tracked Field Development Plans (FDPs), improved data access, and the deployment of the Frontier Exploration Fund (FEF).
“Early wins include stronger data coverage, increased industry participation especially among indigenous players and proof-of-concept developments like Kolmani,” he said, noting that renewed drilling in the Chad Basin and the lower Benue Trough signalled revived exploration efforts.
In a related interview, Executive Commissioner for Development and Production, Mr. Enorense Amadasu, said Nigeria’s oil, condensate, and gas reserves had grown steadily, with crude production targeted to reach four million barrels per day by 2030.
He noted a 1.2 percent increase in average gas production between 2022 and 2025, bringing output to about 7.61 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Gas flaring, he said, declined by 20.29 percent within the same period, reflecting progress toward Nigeria’s 2030 energy transition goals.
Executive Commissioner for Economic Regulation and Strategic Planning, Mr. Babajide Fasina, highlighted the commission’s efforts to ensure hydrocarbons fund Nigeria’s energy transition. He cited the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), which aims to end routine flaring by 2031 and monetise half of total gas flares.
Fasina added that reactivating shut-in wells could unlock up to 700,000 barrels of oil per day, boosting short-term output and reserves.
Meanwhile, Chairman and Managing Director of ExxonMobil Subsidiaries in Nigeria, Mr. Jagir Baxi, said Esso was advancing an infill drilling programme in OML 138 (Usan) expected to deliver 30,000–40,000 barrels per day by 2027.
Baxi commended the NUPRC for its collaboration on updating the Field Development Plan but urged continued improvement of the regulatory environment to enhance global investment competitiveness.
