Dutch brewing giant Heineken has projected a decline in beer sales for 2025, citing worsening global economic conditions and weak consumer demand across key markets.
In a statement released on Wednesday, the world’s second-largest brewer said it now expects beer volumes to “decline modestly” next year—marking a downgrade from its earlier forecast of stable growth. The company also disclosed that its annual organic operating profit would likely fall at the lower end of its 4%–8% growth forecast range.
The announcement follows a difficult year for the company, whose shares dropped more than 8% in July after warning that 2024 volumes would remain flat.
Chief Executive Officer Dolf van den Brink admitted that global macroeconomic volatility deepened in the third quarter but expressed optimism that demand would rebound once conditions improve. “We expect demand to recover when conditions normalise,” he said.
Despite the downgrade, investors appeared mildly reassured, with Heineken’s shares rising nearly 1% in early Wednesday trading. Analysts also described the update as “better than feared,” with Barclays’ Laurence Whyatt noting that the negative news had largely been priced in.
Heineken attributed the downturn to inflation, trade tensions, and sluggish consumer spending, particularly in Europe and Latin America. Shipment volumes in Brazil dropped by double digits, while European sales continued to suffer from pricing disputes with major retailers.
However, the brewer reported improvements in several markets, including share gains in Brazil and Mexico, and stronger results in Vietnam, which had previously underperformed.
For the third quarter, Heineken’s net revenue slipped 0.3%, slightly outperforming analyst expectations of a 0.8% decline, while beer volumes fell 4.3%, in line with projections.
As global brewers face shrinking consumption amid shifting health preferences and competition from non-alcoholic beverages, Heineken said it would prioritise emerging markets and work to stabilise demand in core regions to restore growth momentum.
