Our tipster Jones Knows previews a huge midweek fixture list in the Premier League and is backing Liverpool to make a fast start vs Manchester United.
Any winners last weekend for Jones Knows?
- Liverpool to draw with Man City 3/1
- Over 3.5 goals in Saints vs Chelsea 3/1
- Tottenham to win to nil 3/1
- Brentford to beat West Ham 7/4
- Brentford to win 2-0
- Newcastle, Chelsea, Leeds all to win
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Tuesday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
The current state of both these teams can be seen through the match prices for this one. Manchester United are 7/1 with Sky Bet to beat Liverpool. How the mighty have fallen. To be given just a 12.5 per cent chance of winning a football match when you have the greatest striker arguably to have ever played the sport is a quite bewildering reflection of United’s process.
I tipped a Liverpool 5-1 win in the corresponding fixture which overestimated United as they lost 5-0. I’d happily back the same outcome here in any normal situation but Liverpool are in “job done” mode at the moment such is their schedule. The cue might be put on the rack once hitting the front.
For those wanting to get Liverpool on-side, backing them to be winning at half-time at 5/6 with Sky Bet looks a smart way of finding a reasonable price on a home-based bet. No team have been winning at half-time (19 times) and have scored more before the break (38 goals) than Liverpool this season. With Anfield likely to be at full-throttle, a fast-start is expected.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Liverpool to be winning at half-time (5/6 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Chelsea vs Arsenal, Wednesday 7.45pm, live on Sky Sports
Thomas Tuchel takes charge of Chelsea for the 50th time in the Premier League and he can celebrate that milestone by keeping another clean sheet against the misfiring Gunners, who look set to lose their fourth straight Premier League game – something that hasn’t happened since 1995.
Tuchel’s side have kept 25 clean sheets in his 49 Premier League games in the hot seat. It’s resulted in his team having conceded the fewest goals of any Premier League side during his reign at the club (36).
Arsenal aren’t a million miles away from being able to compete with Chelsea when at full-strength but their lack of cover in key areas of the field is threatening to derail what has been a very positive season.
Without Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey, Arsenal’s win-rate in the Premier League drops from 71 per cent to 36 per cent. In 14 games this season when both have been missing, Arsenal have lost eight of those matches. Mikel Arteta’s side have also lost all five Premier League games against the current top three by an aggregate score of 15-1.
Having scored just two goals in their last five Premier League games, confidence in attack must be at rock-bottom so a Chelsea win to nil certainly makes appeal at the prices.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Chelsea to win to nil (5/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester City vs Brighton, Wednesday 8pm
Kevin De Bruyne is on course for his highest goalscoring tally of his career this season. A player usually associated with creating chances is now scoring them.
His strike against Liverpool was the first time in his career he had scored in four consecutive matches in all competitions. He is also on track to break his personal tally of goals in a Premier League season now – that goal being his 11th with his record standing at 13. The Belgian is now aiming to score in three consecutive league games for the first time since October 2015 – and City should provide him with ample opportunities as a big performance is expected after Pep Guardiola decided to rest many of his key men in midweek.
Graham Potter may shuffle his pack regularly in terms of players but the structure and attacking ethos of the team always remains the same even when taking on Manchester City. It usually ends up with them playing far too open and conceding a bucket load of goals against Guardiola’s team. Since taking the job, Potter has conceded an average of 3.3 goals per 90 minutes (20 in six games) to Manchester City. There shouldn’t be too many problems for City in this one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Kevin De Bruyne to score and Man City to win (5/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Everton vs Leicester, Wednesday 7.45pm
Leicester City are set to play a huge part in whether Everton will be a Premier League team next season. Brendan Rodgers’ side face the Toffees twice in the run-in after various postponements and rescheduling of both fixtures due to Covid and Leicester’s European campaign. Having to play Leicester twice surely is a great result for Frank Lampard’s side, especially with fixtures to come against Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.
They are completely unbackable here though.
A fully wound up Leicester side with Jonny Evans and the huge figure of Wesley Fofana in their ranks trading at 2/1 with Sky Bet to beat Everton would usually get my punting juices absolutely flowing. But at this stage of the season where teams have eyes on other commitments, punters do have to tread carefully when making investments on particular teams.
With Goodison Park likely to be in raucous mood – a location where Lampard has generated nine points from a possible 15 available since taking charge – I’m going to swerve my gut instinct to back Leicester at what looks a tasty price. Play the draw.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Back the draw (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace, Wednesday 7.45pm
Newcastle have taken 26 points from 13 Premier League games in 2022, winning eight of those matches. In a Premier League table just including games since New Year’s Day, Newcastle would be third. At an odds-against price of 13/10 with Sky Bet, I think they can be trusted here.
But my main play sees me rolling the dice on Dan Burn to score again. He’s going to pop up before the end of the campaign.
Good quality chances have fallen Burn’s way in his 10 starts for Newcastle which have equated to an expected goals figure of 0.97, including two shots on goal in the win over Leicester, where he was the target for every set piece pumped into the box – as seen for his part in the opening Toon goal. He’s the value play to score a header against a side that have conceded 10 goals from corners this season – only Leicester have shipped more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Dan Burn to score first (40/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Burnley vs Southampton, Thursday 7.45pm
Burnley’s change of mentality to playing “must-win” football in the last three matches has seen a positive effect on how many goals there will be in their games. Games have been much more open affairs with their past three seeing seven goals scored and a total expected goals figure of 13.45 when collating both teams. That xG figure tells the whole story.
How the 1-1 draw with West Ham stayed under 2.5 was all about the sheer brilliance of Nick Pope and general wasteful nature of Maxwell Cornet from 12 yards.
Southampton are a reliable team when it comes to goal heavy matches, too. Their away games this season have averaged 3.27 goals per 90 minutes with 60 per cent of those matches producing four or more goals.
The markets have the goal line around 2.5 goals, which I think is too low. This means backing overs is the way to go.