Our tipster Jones Knows previews a huge weekend in the Premier League and thinks West Ham are a big price to beat Chelsea.
How many midweek winners for Jones Knows?
- Liverpool to be winning at half-time vs Man Utd 5/6
- Everton to draw with Leicester 12/5
- Everton 1-1 Leicester 7/1
- Wins for Newcastle, Man City & Liverpool
Burnley vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm
Not many people are mentioning Wolves when it comes to the European race but a seventh-placed finish would be good enough for European football so there is plenty to play for. It looks a straight shootout for that spot with West Ham, who obviously have the added workload of potentially three more Europa League games to negotiate. If Wolves can maintain their form over the next few weeks, the 11/4 with Sky Bet for them to finish above West Ham does look a spot of value.
Unusually for the time of season, Wolves head to Burnley on the back of a 15-day period without a match whilst Burnley have had an emotional time with the sacking of Sean Dyche. This game will be their sixth in 20 days, and that does make the 17/10 for an away win rather tempting. I’d be happy to add over 2.5 goals to that bet too looking at the goal-line which is set very low. Despite their low goal expectancy, all Wolves’ last five wins have seen the overs land and with Burnley knowing only wins will do from here, I’m expecting them to play their part in a goal heavy game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 BETTING ANGLE: Over 2.5 goals and Wolves to win (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Chelsea vs West Ham, Sunday 2.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Thomas Tuchel’s approach relies so much on a sound defensive base. When that base becomes flimsy, the whole ‘Tuchel-ball’ concept can go spectacularly wrong – as it has in games against Brentford and Arsenal of late. West Ham should fancy their chances of causing Chelsea a problem, especially with a rested Michail Antonio fit to lead the line.
Chelsea could be about to lose four successive home games in all competitions for the first time since 1978.
Antonio, making his 400th career appearance, has had a full week to refresh ahead of a big week for the Hammers. He should be at full throttle here – and, as mentioned here before, his impact when well rested for West Ham is gigantic.
On the last 23 occasions where Antonio has had a rest period of seven days or more between games, West Ham have won 18 games, losing just two of those. Those defeats were a totally understandable defeat away at Manchester City and a 3-2 home defeat to Southampton on Boxing Day where Antonio scored and the Hammers won the expected goals battle in a positive performance.
Furthermore, Antonio’s personal record after a break seems to spike. In those aforementioned 23 matches, the striker has racked up 19 goal involvements (10 goals, nine assists) suggesting that his performance level increases after being able to rest.
Back him to score his first goal in 14 games in a West Ham win at a gigantic price of 11/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 BETTING ANGLE: West Ham to win (11/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Michail Antonio to score and West Ham to win (11/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brighton vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm
If it looks like a draw, smells like a draw and tastes like a draw, then it’s probably going to be a draw.
Just one point separates these two evenly-matched sides in the Premier League table, while if you look at the four previous meetings the aggregate score has ended 6-6 in games separated by fine margins. Adding under 2.5 goals into the equation also looks a smart play. Brighton’s upturn in results in the past month has been down to a higher conversion rate in front of goal but their superb defensive process is at the heart of Graham Potter’s good work as a manager. Since he was appointed only Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea have a better expected goals against record than Brighton. This season, 24 of their 33 games have fallen under the 2.5 goals line – the highest ratio in the Premier League. Backing the 0-0 or 1-1 correct score at 3/1 with Sky Bet should give you a great run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 BETTING ANGLE: Back the draw and under 2.5 goals (3/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Liverpool vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Everton’s only win in the last 22 Premier League meetings with Liverpool was the 2-0 win at Anfield in February 2021 – a game behind closed doors. They have won just four of the 44 Premier League meetings since the turn of the millennium. That was during an era when Liverpool were very beatable, so the task ahead of them now against one of the greatest teams we’ve ever seen in the Premier League is bordering on impossible. Everton have also failed to win any of their last 13 Premier League away games, since a 2-0 win vs Brighton in August, losing the last six in a row. They are 14/1 with Sky Bet to leave Anfield with three points. They say everything has a price, but I’m not sure an Everton win does. Would I back them at 100/1? Probably not.
Trying to find a value-soaked Liverpool bet is tricky but those that like playing the short prices may want to consider Liverpool to score three or more goals at 5/6 with Sky Bet.
Klopp’s men have scored 31 goals in their last 12 games and have scored three or more goals in eight of their last 14 games at Anfield. With one of the worst defences in Europe rocking up, it could be feeding time for the Liverpool strikers once again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 BETTING ANGLE: Liverpool to score three or more goals (5/6 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Crystal Palace vs Leeds, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
If Patrick Viera was Graham Potter or Thomas Frank, would he be getting the same level of rave reviews at Crystal Palace? Last time I looked both of those clubs were higher in the table than Palace. I’m not pouring cold water on what has been a much-improved season for Palace but I do think they’ve been overhyped slightly due to who is managing them and what he achieved as a player. That could be worth exploring when assessing next season’s ante post markets, especially if they lose Conor Gallagher.
The first goal in their games is absolutely crucial to the outcome. Vieira’s team are unbeaten in 14 Premier League games when scoring first this season (W8 D6) as they rarely sit on leads. However, they haven’t won in 14 Premier League games when conceding first (D4 L9) – one of two Premier League teams without a win.
Leeds arrive having won three of their last four matches, and Jesse Marsch looks to have lit a fire under Raphinha, whose form has rocketed in recent weeks. With a player like him in the ranks, Leeds look very backable at 13/5 for the win against a team only four points above them in the table.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 BETTING ANGLE: Leeds to win and Raphinha to score (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)