France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou appeared headed for defeat in a confidence vote on Monday, a setback that could plunge the euro zone’s second-largest economy into deeper political uncertainty.
The vote, scheduled for Monday afternoon, follows weeks of negotiations since Bayrou took office on August 25 during heated budget debates. Despite media appeals and last-minute talks, he struggled to secure a majority, with opposition parties across the spectrum pledging to oust him.
“The government will fall,” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, echoing similar declarations from other opposition figures.
The potential collapse of Bayrou’s government would mark France’s fourth prime ministerial failure in three years, underscoring the country’s political instability. It also comes at a sensitive time for Europe, which is grappling with Russia’s war in Ukraine, growing trade tensions with the United States, and China’s assertive global posture.
Analysts warn the turmoil could undermine France’s ability to manage its strained public finances. The country’s budget deficit nearly doubled the EU’s 3% ceiling last year, while public debt rose to 113.9% of GDP. Credit downgrades and widening bond spreads are among the risks cited by investors.
If Bayrou is removed, President Emmanuel Macron will face the task of appointing yet another prime minister capable of steering a budget through parliament, less than a year after Michel Barnier, his conservative predecessor, was forced out. Macron has already ruled out dissolving parliament, as he did last year.
