By Emegwoako C. Paschal
According to OPEC, the much-anticipated Dangote Refinery’s processing capacity will account for more than half of Africa’s expected total additional distillations in the medium term.
The international oil cartel revealed this in its latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), estimating the addition at 1.2 million barrels per day in the medium term, emphasizing that the refinery, which has a capacity of 650, 000 barrels per day, would take the lion’s share.
Aside from the asset owned by Africa’s richest man, a 100 tb/d refinery in Soyo, Angola, a 110 tb/d Hassi Messaoud refinery expansion in Algeria, a 160 tb/d Midor refinery expansion in Egypt, a 10 tb/d Brahms modular refinery in Guinea, and a 110 tb/d Pointe Noire II refinery in the Republic of Congo are all expected to start production.
Furthermore, Ghana and Senegal are expected to commission new units, the majority of which are modular, to meet Africa’s rapidly growing demand.
In addition to the Dangote refinery, rehabilitation is underway in Warri and Port Harcourt, and work on the Kaduna refinery will begin soon, according to the report, which states that if the refurbishments are successful, Africa can expect even higher throughputs and utilization rates in the long run.
The downstream market has tightened significantly in the last year, owing to strong oil demand growth, a decline in available refining capacity, and geopolitical uncertainties, according to OPEC.
It noted that around 7.3 mb/d of refining capacity additions are expected over the medium term (2022-2027), with the majority of this occurring in Asia-Pacific (3.6 mb/d), the Middle East (1.6 mb/d), and Africa (1.2 mb/d).
In the long term (2022-2045), OPEC projected global refining additions at 15.5 mb/d, with a significant slowdown in additions near the end of the projection period.
It emphasized that the medium-term balance indicates a tightening downstream market relative to 2021, with the estimated deficit of potential refining capacity relative to required refining capacity peaking around 2.7 mb/d in 2023 and 2024.
When completed, the Dangote integrated refinery and petrochemical complex in the Lekki Free Zone near Lagos, Nigeria, will be the world’s largest single-train facility.
The refinery, which is expected to cost around $20 billion, will produce Euro-V quality petrol and diesel, as well as jet fuel and polypropylene, and will likely generate 4,000 direct and 145,000 indirect jobs.
The new refinery will double Nigeria’s refining capacity and help meet rising fuel demand while saving money and foreign exchange. It is estimated to have a refining capacity of 10.4 million tonnes of gasoline per year.
