The World Bank has warned that extreme poverty is escalating more rapidly in Nigeria and 38 other countries affected by conflict and instability, exacerbating hunger and derailing global development targets.
In its first comprehensive post-COVID-19 assessment of Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS), the World Bank revealed that these nations, including Nigeria, are now home to the majority of the world’s poorest people.
The report identifies Nigeria among 39 economies facing varying degrees of instability, with challenges such as insurgency in the Northeast and widespread insecurity, including banditry and kidnappings in the Northwest, contributing to its fragile status.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries classified as FCS have experienced severe economic setbacks. Their per capita GDP has declined by an average of 1.8% annually, while other developing countries saw an average growth of 2.9% over the same period.
According to the World Bank, about 421 million people currently live on less than $3 a day in conflict-affected or unstable countries—more than in the rest of the world combined. That number is expected to rise to 435 million by 2030, representing nearly 60% of the global extreme poor.
“For the last three years, global attention has focused on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. “Yet over 70% of those suffering from conflict and instability are in Africa. If untreated, these crises become chronic—half of the affected countries have endured such conditions for over 15 years.”
The report highlights that while the extreme poverty rate in developing economies has fallen to just 6%, it remains alarmingly high at nearly 40% in conflict-hit nations. Additionally, the average GDP per capita in these fragile countries has stagnated at around $1,500, compared to over $6,900 in other developing economies—a gap that has widened since 2010.
The inability to generate enough employment is another key concern. In 2022, more than 270 million people in conflict-affected economies were of working age, but less than half were employed, underscoring the scale of economic stagnation.
“Economic stagnation—not growth—has defined conflict-affected economies for the past 15 years,” said M. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank and Director of its Prospects Group. “The international community must act. With targeted policies and sustained global support, it is possible to prevent conflict, improve governance, spur growth, and create jobs.”
The World Bank’s findings emphasize that without urgent and focused interventions, the global goal of eradicating extreme poverty will remain out of reach—especially in regions where progress is most difficult to achieve.
